AL

Good day to you too grandpa Ken.

Al

What are you trying to do? Win? Not if I can help it. But you do have a
very interesting fantasy portfolio. May be very volatile, however. None
of your stocks are in my fantasy portfolio. May the best player win -
and we all know who that is. Can you say.... Dad

Allans stocks for 2007

buys

500 OII
50 ELNK
100 SSMH
300 FREE
200 CC
400 HSY
2000 HALL
4000 NIPNY
2000 CMD

Allans grandma

My grandma wants to play in the next one. Her email is ***EDITED***. P.S. She and I would like our portfolio kept secret. Hers for now.

- by erika - I removed your email address so it doesn't get picked up by TOO many spammers. Best not to list those here if you can help it :)

Allan

Thanks grandpa Ken. It has been fun playing you too though it was tough. Ill have my stocks in by the 2nd Aunt Erica.P.S. Sorry if i spelled your name wrong.

Thanks

I am proud to be the winner of Round 1 after participating with a
group of true "gamers." Thanks for the experience. Finishing ahead of Al
was a real job; who would have thought the stocks of MCD and KR would
have done so well? Not me. I plan on vigorously defending my
championship in Round 2 and (a tease) I have already chosen 21 stocks
with which to start my Round 2 portfolio, several of which you probably
have not heard of but all of which have upside potential regardless of
how the US economy and the US stock markets perform. Famous last words,
right? So keep watching this web site and participate in the fun and
excitement. Dad

Clarification

The sudden jump up in my fantasy stock score is due to, as I
understand it, the correction of a mathematical error in the program
which has been occuring for some time. Since this is the first round of
what I hope will be many quarterly fantasy stock challenges, some
program "bugs" are to be expected.
There is a very important lesson to be learned here. Always know
where all your money is and how much you should have in your accounts.
Verify this quarterly, or more often if necessary, by, for example,
going to the originating source or to another source which cannot be
falsified or to another source which is subject to ongoing outside
audits. Never, never accept monthly statements as your only verification
source. If you learn nothing else from this challenge, remember this. Dad

Chris

Nice come-back. Dad

Next round is coming fast..

Just a reminder that our next round of competition begins January 2nd - you will need to have your portfolios in to me before 4pm on that day. If you want to keep your portfolio 'hidden' email it to me, otherwise posting on the board is fine.

Remember you have $100,000 in 'play' money to spend, and no more than 20% of that money can go in to any one stock. (If the stock goes up and ends up being worth more than 20% of your portfolio, that's your choice - but if it was me, I'd take some of the table and diversify)

Best of luck, looking forward to your picks!

A quick note

Last night it turns out that my code didn't pull the LAST stock price of the day as the service I used somehow got -jammed? stalled? - so the prices I listed were inaccurate. I BELIEVE this has been resolved, but I will be checking back later tonight to see if everything looks correct. Thanks to dad for catching this, and see you all on Sunday!

Erika

Erika's thoughts..

Well I stopped by Borders last night and leafed through Cramer's newest book - it's quite good! It made me want to reread 'Real Money', so that's what I've been doing.

My concerns were these:
- Where are we in the cycle (as described by Cramer)
- How well does my current portfolio show diversification, and
- How well does it reflect our positions in the cycle?

After spending some time reviewing where I'm at, I need to make some changes; I'll be doing that this week, starting with the following:

Selling all of McDonalds (450 of MCD)
- Thoughts on it - I've made money, but I'm too exposed and as Cramer points out in his latest book, it's just too hard to figure out where a restaurant same store sales are going to go. As witness, look at Panera. It's way too easy to get burned. I'm taking my profits and working on diversification of my portfolio, as mentioned above.

Holding Coldwater Creek
Perhaps I should sell it, but my position is so small I'm willing to ride this one for a while despite the huge burn I took. Live and learn, don't know if I'll get back to even but we'll see.

Selling all of Microsoft (300 of MSFT )
- Thoughts on this - I'm too levered to tech and I want to stick with eBay for a while. I doubt dollar cost averaging will make any difference because this stock is stapled to 29-30 and I'd rather get the money into play somewhere else. I was hoping for a pop with the release of the new Operating System and the outstanding performance of the XBox 360 this quarter, but honestly, it ain't gonna happen. Bye bye, Bill.

Instead I'm looking to get in to one oil services and perhaps one telecomm or housing, which I'm researching now. When I decide on my picks, I'll post them... stay tuned!

Erikas Buys for Monday

I'm picking up a financial, COF - 200 shares, since it came in today. Tempting though it might be, I'm not increasing my holdings because I dont want to be overweighted in it.

So - COF - Buy 200 for Monday.

Looking forward to a rally by Friday!

Update to previous note

"The Contrarian" referred to in the previous note is "The Contrarian
Chronicles" by Bill Fleckenstein. My apologies for not being clearer.
His column is always worth reading. Dad

Happy Meal Indicator

Yesterday I paid $2.80 for each of two MacDonalds Happy Meals, up from
about $2.20 about two years ago. Jim Jubak's column deserves reading
several times. So does Ron Insana's book "The Message of the Markets."
Almost all commodities are going up and there probably is a reason in
addition to China, India, etc. What is the message of this market? Could
our government be spending too much money? Also worth reading - "The
Contrarian" (on the same website that has Jim Jubak). Dad

Jubak's "Bagel Index" may forecast stagflation

I dropped by CNBC.com today and was greeted by the headline "Bagel index shows bite of inflation". I don't think any of us are really surprised by this... he also asks "What are your real world indicators of inflation?" Mine was always the Meat and Moo Index - dairy products have not stopped rising yet in the last two years, with milk now sitting around $3.29 a gallon, up a staggering $1.10 in only three years. And meat is also now on the rise - hamburger I bought for $5.79 is now sitting at about (get this) $7.29 for the same amount of meat. That's not small change folks.

What do you think? Is Jubak right or wrong? And what are our indicators?

Black Friday Blues?

Retail stocks looked a bit week today (with the notable exception of Gamestop) and I was surprised at how 'NOT that busy' it was out shopping today - not that there weren't shoppers but they were not buying like I think a lot of people hoped - at 1:30 pm Wal-Mart still had literally PALLETS of doorbuster deals like the $4 kitchen appliances, still 2/3 full, and the aisles were clear and quiet. Not what you expected at all. Mind you, we all had a FANTASTIC time out shopping and I got some really great deals (best Black Friday for me in years!) - but this does not bode well for the retail season overall IMHO.

Could we be seeing what I'll term the 'Sony effect'? If I had just spent close to $800 on a video game system and some games, how much would be left to spend overall, especially when the average shopper this year is expected to spend only $800 total and trying to reduce their overall credit card debt. Or is this merely a blip, soon to be forgotten? If sales continue to be slow, will we see a frenzy of dropped prices as the weeks progress?

Stay tuned.... and til next week, enjoy those leftovers!

Dad's Stock Moves 1

Sell:

(TYC) - 200 shares

Buy:

(NEM) - 150 shares

Dad

Not going to be a pig

I'm selling PD and taking those profits - sometimes I'd rather be lucky than good.
By the way I just jumped out of my chair and did the 'happy happy dance' :)

Erika's Stocks

Looks like you won big with PD. But if the recent past is any indication
of how unpredictable this sector can be, don't be surprised if more
surprises are to come in what's left of this sector. Dad

Chris's Picks

Look like good long term picks to me. Personally, I would have put less
money into these 3 stocks and added a biotech (like AMGN or DNA), an
energy stock (like KBR for instance), and a technology stock ( INTC?)
which could be a speculative play, Dad

Chris's stock purchases

Hi folks,

Chris did get these to me last night (while watching Cramer in fact) I just didn't actually upload my files due to being overworked AND the sporadic downtime on blogger this morning (the thing has been about as stable as a cat on a unicycle.)

Prices shown are close of last night, which is when it was submitted; this may or may not bite him in the ass. Next time please post them to the blog Chris so I have a timestamp! :)

Erika

I love wall street...

.. and how a company which is doing well can see their stock take a hit if it doesn't meet their 'expectations'. I am selling my remaining shares of MDRX and GME, plus half of my EBAY (all at a profit) and dollar cost averaging IN to buy 100 more shares of SHLD at the lower price. I think this is a perfect time to Mo' Back on this one and also make it easier for me to realize some profits. We'll see if I'm right.

I'm beginning to see a pattern...

...all my clients freak out on Wednesdays :)
Sorry for the late post! Hope you all had a more peaceful day than I did!

Erika

Erika Buy/Sell

Erika is selling some more of the following
as I believe that Gamestop is coasting to it's top, and want to take some profits on my Allscripts

50 shares of GME
400 shares of MDRX

and buying into growth for the holiday season Sears (my choice, should do quite well now that Wal-Mart is done lowering prices) and Coldwater Creek (based on Cramer and some research.)

200 of SHLD
100 of CWTR

BOOya ;)

A quick note about weekend posts...

A quick note about weekend posts...
I thought long and hard about this, and to preserve the fairness of the competition, sales posted over the weekend are going to be 'purchased' on Monday. It's too easy to see in after hours trading which way the stocks might go, and presents an unfair advantage if I 'backdate' the sale to Friday night (I'm quite sure the SEC wouldn't be in favor of this either.)

Best of luck!
Erika

more sells and buys from allan

Sell all shares of GMS and BKC

Buy 50 shares of HOT
Buy 10 more shares of OII
Buy 10 shares of NEM
Buy 100 shares of PD
Buy 10 shares of TOPP
Buy 100 shares of RSH
Buy 5000 shares of APLL

Allan sells stocks

Allan sells all shares of JCP, all shares of BBY and all shares of CC

sorry about that

erika - my computer said that there was an error in posting, when I went to view the page, it posted my buys 3 times. please disregard 2 of them, I only want 1 set done (10 shares of each stock not 30 shares)

Todd

todd e's stock buys

10 shares of MCZ
10 shares of TOPP
10 shares of BKS

Portfolios Updated

A busy week this week - Chris has liquidated his holdings pending a major restructuring of his plan; Al has lost the first place position; and I screwed up and didn't book a sale last night, thus losing some money. That's why you have to pay attention folks! Ah well I'm still a solid third. Looking forward to next week!

todd e. buys more stock

Buy 50 shares of NFLX
Buy 50 shares of UPS

Sorry posting so late guys

One of those days. The posts are updated, and yes I did receive your entires last night Todd and Al. Tomorrow we'll be back on time!

Todd's Buys

Buy another 50 shares of BWLD
Buy another 50 shares of DCX

Allan's buys and sells

Sell all shares of BOBE
Sell all shares of BKS

Buy 60 shares of GG

Taking some more profits in preparation for Tuesday

Erika Sells:

100 of PD
100 of GME

Purchase / Sell

Purchase: 1000 Shares ESLR on 2006-11-06
Sell: 1000 Shares ESLR on 2006-11-07

Yes, I am experimenting with a quick trade to see if I can generate some cash flow. Whole Foods and that debacle set me back far enough that I need to make up some ground to see if I can get back in the game. The closing price is high: I hope I have been locked in near the top.

Erika's maneuvers

I'm going to take some profits; I started thinking about dollar cost averaging and decided that this would be a good time to

Sell 200 shares of GME

and do some homework over the weekend, planning on purchasing Monday.

Anyone Have an Antacid?

Sell all of Whole Foods.

Can't believe that a profitable company that has plenty of room for growth got pummeled for lowered guidance. Goes to show that I simply do not have a "feel" of the grocery industry. Going to hold the tattered remains of what is left in cash for now, until I can research properly.

Dad starts pulling away...

I notice that Dad is now starting to pull away... Al is losing ground with some of his picks but so far OII is saving him. Chris is being relentlessly hammered by what I honestly think were good picks with bad luck. Todd is doing well also, and I've moved from the 'safe' position of Google to speculate on a couple other stocks (MSFT, EBAY) who might be interested in acquiring a weakened Yahoo in the hopes of making up some ground.

What will this week bring? Are the stock hopes of the folks toward the back of the pack going to continue to be haunted by the ghosts of bad luck, or will they pull some treats out of their bags and begin gaining ground? Only time will tell...

Erika Sell 10-30-06

Sell All GOOG
Buy 300 MSFT
Buy 330 EBAY

Fantasy Stock #5

Buy:

(NEM) - 100 shares

Dad

Fantasy Stock #4

Buy:

(YHOO) - 200 shares
(IMCL) - 300 shares
(TYC) - 200 shares

Dad

Fantasy Stock #3

Buy:

(HAWK) - 500 shares

Dad

todd 's buy of BWLD

Todd wants to buy 100 shares of BWLD

Allan's stock moves

Sell all 70 shares of BWLD
Buy 5 shares of BTI

Fantasy Stock #2

Buy:

(CCJ) - 300 shares

Dad

PNRA: Major Q3 Traffic Wreck

Grr...Panera incurred a significant loss on a 30% revenue gain. Looks like they had issues rolling out their night menu. Read more by CLICKING HERE.

Dad's Buys (10/24)

Buy:
300 NYT - New York Times
200 IR - Ingersol Rand
Dad

Allan's Stocks

JCP 2 SHARES
BBY 3 SHARES
CC 6 SHARES
GME 1 SHARE
BBW 8 SHARES
HAS 1 SHARE
LF 15 SHARES
BKS 35 SHARES
BKC 20 SHARES
BOBE 1 SHARE
WMT 40 SHARES
BWLD 70 SHARES
PEP 120 SHARES
KR 500 SHARES
MCD 900 SHARES
OII 900 SHARES

Chris' Stock Picking Justification, v1.0

When choosing picks for this competition, I began by trying to avoid being overweight in any one segment. I may not have hit this goal since I have two stocks dealing with food (PNRA and WFMI), but since one is a restaurant and one is a grocer, I felt comfortable enough to continue. I have only performed basic research, so I won't claim that any of the statements here constitute fact; they are simply my impressions as I surfed the web looking for some picks for the competition.

American Campus Communities, Inc. (ACC) - I picked this because higher education is becoming a growth industry, as more and more jobs require a college degree of some type. All those bodies require somewhere to sleep, and this REIT is focused on serving that niche. Their latest project is 100% leased through the next academic year, Vista del Campo Norte (More). Additionally, the company manages the projects, and to me, this means that they can monitor costs more effectively than an outside management company.

Community Bancorp (CBON) - Holding company for the Community Bank of Nevada, which focuses lending to commercial projects in and around the Las Vegas metropolitan area. My reasoning on this is that: 1) as one of the fastest-growing cities in the US, Las Vegas commercial lending and development should offer a wide opportunity to lending institutions that specialize in the area, and 2) even as the real estate market cools, owning a second home is no longer restricted to the "rich and famous". As the population ages, demand for summer homes should increase, and this "phantom population" will require goods and services for the months that they reside there, increasing the need for commercial real estate even more; 3) It is on an M & A trail, so it may be purchasing other banks to try and fuel growth, which can sometimes make share prices rise. My fault lies in not researching its portfolio - and its 3-year chart is schizophrenic to say the least. Of course, for a competition such as this, maybe that's a good thing, and will allow me to grab a few points before flipping it.

Panera Bread Company (PNRA) - Love their food. And yes, that is never a "good enough" reason to invest in any company. But, their Q3 same store sales were VERY strong, so that gave me a warm and fuzzy feeling, just like their artichoke-chicken-panini. They aren't just fueling growth by building new stores like some chains do.

Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) - Cosmetic dentistry is the most lucrative niche in the healthcare industry, and Invisalign's product offering addresses teeth straightening without the need of unsightly metal braces. The company has just won a court case against a competitor offering a similar system, meaning essentially that ALGN now owns this vertical. ALGN is also releasing a software system that will help doctors more effectively treat and use ALGN's products effectively, leveraging their brand in the minds of decision makers: doctors and dentists.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI) - GMO, or genetically modified organisms in terms of food are plants or animals that have been modified using recombinant DNA technology to enhance or 'build in' specific features, such as resistances to herbicides. There is a growing concern that used to be centered in Europe, but has made its way to the US, about the 'unpredictable nature' of this technology. I personally believe the risks are overblown, but this represents a growing mindshare in the public, and that packs a lot of value. As an 'organic' retailer, Whole Foods can leverage that mindshare by offering foods that are labeled as non-gm foods. Additionally, the use of 'heritage foods' and 'locally grown foods' is becoming in vogue in high-end residential kitchens, and with 155 locations, building and M & A could represent an avenue of growth if the management chose to pursue it.
UPDATE: I just found their spreadsheet on their site of their location history, and a web page with their acquisition history. They also have regularly scheduled podcasts, and have an upcoming fourth quarter podcast on Nov 2. Never having been to one of their locations, just looking over the company's website, their merchandising looks unique and inviting, and differentiates it from a standard grocer. Looks like a place to 'hang-out' as well as shop.

Monday's gains

Well today I'm pleased to say that everyone who invested, made money! My portfolio took an early lead when I gambled on Google - after last week's run I still thought it had some legs in it. Chris made some solid gains as well with Panera, and both Todd and I felt that the only real winner in the videogame console wars this fall would be Gamestop.

What will tomorrow bring? I can't wait to find out!

Erika's Initial Buy

Here is my initial buy - we'll see how it does:

PD (Phelps Dodge) - 200 shares
MDRX (Allscripts Healthcare Solutions) - 800 shares
MCD (McDonald's Corporation) - 450 shares
GME (Gamestop) - 400 shares
GOOG (Google) - 20 shares

Chris' Initial Buy

Chris will be buying the following:

ACC (American Campus Communities)	748 shares
CBON (Community Bancorp)	670 shares
PNRA (Panera Bread Company)	308 shares
ALGN (Align Technology)	1415 shares
WFMI (Whole Foods Market, Inc)	308 shares

Two final competitors

Folks, we will be accepting two late entries to the competition - Alan, Todd's son, and Justin a friend of myself and Chris. Their entries will be in tonight and posted (or if late, they will simply have to live with the penalty of not being able to make any money on their picks Monday. )

All picks will be up and visible tomorrow morning - good luck to everyone!

Todd's buys

DCX - 50 SHARES
BUD - 50 SHARES
KR - 50 SHARES
GME - 50 SHARES
BBI - 50 SHARES

Dad's Friday Order (10/20)

Buy:
300 (CHK) (Chesapeake Energy)
300 (GG) (Goldcorp)
300 (OII) (Oceaneering International)
300 (SWN) (Southwestern Energy Company)
300 (AA) (Alcoa)

Participant Notification

Hi everyone!

Just a quick heads up - I will need your portfolio by the end of the week (Friday at market close) if you will be participating in this year's challenge. I will enter all buy orders at that time, so that noone has an unfair advantage (for example, if I bought now, I'd have a leg up on anyone who hasn't yet submitted their order. Well unless my stocks went down, but they're not going to do that!)

Get your ticker symbol list posted here by Friday at Market close. Please enclose all ticker symbols in parenthesis, like this:

(WM) - 100 shares
(CSCO) - 50 shares

and so on. That's so the automagic (intentionally misspelled) feed burner can give me links right to your purchase - making the workload easier on yours truly.

Best of luck to all participants!

Elynn

First Post!!!

Seriously...

This blog is going to be the 'home base' for a stock competition that my father, business partner and I are holding. (Well, and maybe a couple other folks, like my brother if he has time.)

The rules are simple: given a starting stake, who can grow it the most? This is of course, fake money; and it's one of the best ways to learn how to invest. Giving us a reason to check the ticker every day - I can't wait to get started!